It is not just tariffs. The cost of living in the US, especially housing, has approximately doubled in my area since 2019. There is a massive overinvestment in real estate. When housing costs go up it forces companies to pay their employees more to adjust which then drives up the COGS. This becomes a feedback loop because the real estate investors see the prices go up and say "well we have to raise rents because COGS are going up."
Competing with any offshore becomes impossible (especially when compared to countries which subsidize their production). Companies close instead of attempting to compete. Why would you when simply investing in real estate, crypto or AI would net more money? The parts needed to produce in the US are typically not made in the US.
Tariffs hurt...a lot...the companies I work with directly (including mine) have been struggling with them for a decade now. But it is a lot more than that...there is a general lack of interest in making things that are real. Plus, the cost if you attempt to do so puts you in a position where you cannot be competitive.
+1 on the tarrifs and the cost of living. We actually left the USA and moved to the Caribbean because our R&D was being burned up in tarrifs; actually cheaper to move the operation. It’s stupid to raise tarrifs overnight when there are no comparable domestic alternatives. A 5 year, stable plan to ramp tariffs? Sure. That builds a runway for local supply and transition. Random tariff adjustment between 0-200% changing every month? Absolute poison for innovation, and local suppliers can’t ramp on chaos.
The cost of living, also, needs a reframe. The real truth there is that most people, who live paycheck to paycheck, are half as prosperous as they were a couple of years ago. Think about that. The Majority of an entire country became twice as poor practically overnight. It’s not cost of living rising , it’s standard of living being halved for most Americans. It’s not a small thing, and it will have reprocussions for decades. A population on strong retrograde prosperity does not innovate, does not invent, does not plan for the future. It’s basically terminal cancer.
No doubt innovation will rise once the ashes cool, but that’s more like what we are seeing in Eastern Europe, admirable and significant, but no equivalence whatsoever to the economic juggernaut that the USA once was. (And still is, for now)
Maybe automation will turn that around, but who then is the beneficiary of a fleet of millions (billions?) of corporate owned general purpose humanoid robots? That’s a big part of what my startup is working on ; making that phase generally useful to regular people, not just corporate giants.
Something in this is contradictory and just hoping for a clarification - over investment in real estate should drop costs. I assume you mean under investment leading to prices requiring an overly burdensome amount of personal investment in housing?
I think a more clear statement would be collusion/manipulation in the rental market. Both commercial and residential.
In my town there is a constant raising of rent. People moving away, tons of new overpriced apartments largely vacant. Huge number of short term rentals. Affordable houses are torn down to make condos which are owned by people who don't live there (vacant most of the year, held as investment).
So many vacant commercial units with prices that don't match what businesses can afford to pay...but it drives up the rest of the rental prices to people going "site unseen". If you were not from here you would assume there is a huge demand for those buildings at that rate...this is not true.
These investors are not planning on using these units to help the housing crisis...and they have the ability to "stay irrational longer than renters can stay solvent". Overall this will come back to bite them...but in the short term they can reap the rewards.
Some commercial loans allow "interest only payments" if the unit is vacant. This allows investors to buy several locations...keep half vacant at higher prices and drive up the rents in the area. Through collusion and catering to out of area investors (who don't know better) they can hold the properties for a few years and double their money without every renting the building or paying on the principal of their loan.
This is what I mean by "overinvestment". Locally...why would you invest in a company (US or not) when you can just call dibs on essential services and rake in cash.
My county last I checked was over 35% retired. Most of those who I speak with moved here from out of state and bought multiple houses with the goal of renting them out to pay for their retirement...but when COGS go up that means rent needs to also to support the lifestyle they are accustomed to. Renters are expected to "quit buying coffees" so they can pay the rent...but nobody seems to ask the real estate investor to take personal responsibility for their part in the problem.
I know people say more investment in real estate drives prices down...but that is not the case. Nobody here is building housing to make it cheaper...they are building it because they heard they can get more money than last year. "If they build a new building it should be worth more than an old one right?" So prices keep climbing. Average renter here makes $30-40k (last I checked) but to live in a way that allows you to save you need to make $70k/year.
There is no housing shortage (in my area). There is an "affordable housing" shortage...and that will not be solved by building more unless there are major changes made to the way commercial loans (or personal ethics) are handled.
The only hope is people learn to practice ethical capitalism.
I think you’re touching on a lot of things here which form a self reinforcing web
A) pensions don’t exist so people need cashflow to retire. You either save enough capital that you can build an annuity for yourself or you have cash flow investments and the lowest effort one is rental properties.
B) taxes for capital gains on a home that’s appreciated enough incentive rolling your home into a rental then rolling it into more rentals as it appreciates further afield into lower cost areas. The basis isn’t taxable as long as you roll it to another investment, and as prices go up, you are incentivized to move it into more properties to diversify at lower rents but more units. As that effect continues as people retire the cost of rentals further from the city core keeps rising. An easy fix would be to raise the capital gains deduction for a primary residence to incentive retirees to outright sell and take the annuity option, which is actually easier overall but the capital gains tax makes it unattractive today.
C) Obviously the financing your described, but compounded by private equity and hedge fund dominance in the unit and development rental market skewing towards higher margin lower occupancy developments. The marginal cost of a mass produced “luxury” rental allows for a lot of vacancy, compounded by the IO and other benefits to reduce vacancy load costs. There are also tax benefits to vacancy that improve as your portfolio gets larger. I think this is more than the retiree effect honestly, I think funds dominate large developments now and increasingly unit level portfolios.
D) The rezoning effect is IMO making it worse because it’s making the optionality of low density developments greater allowing for land value appreciation that wouldn’t happen otherwise because of (C). It’s taking a property with lower utility and making it more valuable for a larger development, but there’s no incentive to make the development more affordable per unit. Instead it increases the price per square foot of property value, increasing costs for everyone, while marginally increasing units but they’re constructed and priced to keep price per square foot of livable areas equal or increasing.
I think (A) can’t improve without a real social security system that replaces pensions. (B) can’t improve without tax reform realizing the nominal cutoffs don’t account for inflation and aren’t “rich” taxes any more but retiree taxes. (C) is probably intractable without socialist regulations which are perceived as unfair, and are hard to craft in a way that is not in fact unfair or have unintended consequences (D) is hard because it’s actually a demonstration of the unintended consequences of regulation and ethical capitalism - but the effect is paradoxical.
These are all structurally hard problems and they aren’t made better by the rate of global population growth. There are way more people today than there were before, and economic activity is much denser than before. The urban areas are crushed, and the rural areas empty except for a hoary crust of MAGA with disproportionate state and federal power. It is frustrating all over - and I don’t see an end state that is very positive.
> A) pensions don’t exist so people need cashflow to retire. You either save enough capital that you can build an annuity for yourself or you have cash flow investments and the lowest effort one is rental properties.
First, I assume that we are talking about the United States here.
"pensions don’t exist": This is certainly untrue, especially for retired people today. Private pensions only started to disappear enmass in the late 1990s. Public pension certainly exists. It is called Social Security, and it pays about 25K USD (on average) per year, per retired person.
"so people need cashflow to retire": Sure, they can do that with a 401k that holds bonds. For those unaware, 401k plans really took off in the 1980s. Retired people today most likely have one, plus their 401k was growing during an incredible time. From 1985 to 2015, the S&P 500 grew 12+% per year. That is crazy compounded results!
"you have cash flow investments and the lowest effort one is rental properties": I don't know where this myth started of "rental properties are low effort", but it needs to die. It is much more work that managing a 401k. Also, the ROI for rental properties is rarely more than 5%. Frequently, lower. So, the 401k looks much better and more consistent. Sometimes rental properties are vacant for months at a time. Then you have negative yield/carry because you still have expenses.
Bond yields aren’t comparable to property cash flow; especially leveraged property. Additionally they are highly susceptible to rates and capital risks. It’s also technically a lot harder for most people to juggle a 401k annuity structure. I did however discuss structuring your own annuity earlier. Bonds are much lower than 5% typically for anything other than the worst credit possible. For better than 5% you need to be a relatively active trader, and manage the cash disposition well. Owning property is typically less risk and less effort for the average person, and most they can offload to a property manager. They can of course hire a financial advisor.
Most people having had a rental at some point understand the concepts a lot better than bond trading and investing writ large. They also can’t convert their basis in their home appreciation into their 401k, and my point was on basis rolling of property capital gains and how to convert your family home appreciation into a tax deferred vehicle with cashflow.
Personally, I agree with you; I would do a self managed annuity structure and hire an advisor for my later life when I may not be able to manage it. However, I’m just explaining the typical thinking. And the capital appreciation basis roll is a real problem for retirees whose home appreciated over their lives.
I think you misunderstand what happened in the 80’s - pensions were raided and they were stolen. In the 90’s the defense was to not offer them any more. There do exist some pensions, mostly governmental, and some rare corporate pensions that escaped raiding, but the survival of private pensions wasn’t great even for those that had them. Social security is below poverty rates, and is not a retirement plan but supplemental. It was designed with the private pension system existing in mind. I’m fine with expanding social security by lifting income caps and other fixes, including a sovereign wealth fund. The status quo isn’t tenable.
> Bond yields aren’t comparable to property cash flow; especially leveraged property.
You are right: Bond coupon and principal payments always pay on time for highly rated bonds (incl. gov't bonds). However, the investment property does not pay when it is vacant. "[L]everaged property" implies there is a backing loan. How do you pay the loan if the property is vacant? Suddenly, that investment property doesn't look so great.
> I think you misunderstand what happened in the 80’s - pensions were raided and they were stolen.
This is the reason why Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 (ERISA) exists. It provides insurance for pensions that went bankrupt via the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation. Also, the term "stolen" is doing some very heavy living here: "pensions were raided and they were stolen". In truth, most of these pensions were overfunded, and it was legal for companies to terminate the private pension, then replace it with an annuity that would guarantee promised payments to pensioners.
The 401k with company matching has largely replaced (or: overtaken) the private pension in the United States. The primary problem with putting so much pressure on the 401k system: There are lots of people who don't have/use professional advice how to manage their savings. My mother was well-educated (master's degree) and was a public school teacher for 35+ years. She was not well-equipped to manage her 401k. She only understood the basics. Think about that: She has two university degrees. Think of all the people who have much less and are required to manage their primary source of retirement income. It is a flawed system.
Personally, I much prefer the Dutch or Japanese "Three Pillar" system: (1) National minimum pension (like US Social Security), (2) private pension provided by workplace (professionally managed), (3) personal pension(s) (similar to 401k). In combination, the trio provides the greatest chance for people to avoid poverty during retirement.
More people have a 401k today than ever had a private pension. While a pension does have advantages (and not everybody has a useful amount in their 401k), your odds of having a good retirement plan are higher today than ever.
That still leaves a lot of people with a terrible retirement plan though. SS is something, but that is about all you can say about it.
Come - the median retirement age 401k balance is $97k. This isn’t useful, and most people get a 401k default enrollment without contributions so account existence isn’t a useful metric. Your odds aren’t better if you don’t contribute.
I’d also note you have to be at a company that even offers a 401k. Only 45% of Americans have access to a 401k, or have their own IRA. This isn’t a safety net - I’d like to see you do a high wire with only 45% of the area of your walk covered with a net, and of that the median segment doesn’t have the strength to hold your weight. It’s a political gambit to fool people into voting against their best interests.
Your points seem to be valid. I don't have a solution either.
Where I live used to be the rural area that people made fun of you for being from (Idaho). Also, my county is 70%+ MAGA voters. So I understand your point about disproportionate amount of power...that is another topic entirely (as is the Redoubt movement and other things attempting to profit off the imbalance).
This is happening everywhere around me. Montana is just as bad. Locals have nowhere to go and cannot afford to stay.
I don't have a solution...just pointing out my observations of the issues I have encountered personally.
Not a surprise to me though since I am operating in the CNC industry I have seen the same struggles and changes, albeit, from a slightly different perspective.
I work with the Smoothieware/Smoothieboard project. It seems, from my observation, that most people are not working with hardware like they were a few years ago. The "homebrew" machines and shadetree makers are becoming few and far between.
The lie has been heavily sold to the maker community that you are "wasting your time if you make something yourself" since it is cheaper to offshore even small 3d prints and machining projects. Not only that but people have been convinced that they don't have the ability to make a machine.
Instead of spending time learning something new/valuable (i.e. Reprap) it is now popular to just have someone else do it...be it AI or a factory in another country with subsidies that create massive differences in bottom line.
The ability to make things at home is disappearing. People cannot/will not learn to make their own machines. Companies that make machines that care about their community and customers are disappearing.
> The lie has been heavily sold to the maker community that you are "wasting your time if you make something yourself" since it is cheaper to offshore even small 3d prints and machining projects.
> The ability to make things at home is disappearing
I do not know what you are talking about.
3D printing at home is more popular than ever. Even families I know who don’t have a computer at home, only their phones, now have 3D printers and use them.
> People cannot/will not learn to make their own machines
I think this is an appeal to 3D printing purity that drove me away from many of the communities. In the early days we all swapped tips and shared reviews of parts (like the Smoothieboard I still have) with other people who liked to build machines because that was the only way to do 3D printing at hobby level prices. When asked what we used the 3D printers for, the joke was that they were used to print parts for our 3D printer. It wasn’t really a joke, though. We spent more time keeping the printers working and trying to tune them than we did printing other things we needed.
That has flipped. Now it’s easy to get a cheap 3D printer and start getting parts out of it without thinking about the printer much. This is great if you’re a person who wants to use the output of the printer. This is boring if you think the value is the process of building and changing the printer hardware all the time.
I’m tired of hearing takes about how this is wrong or bad. Most “makers” want to make other things, not spend their precious free time trying to debug failing prints. There are more opportunities and knowledge available now for people who do want to build their own machines and it’s very cheap. People who want to do that can, but don’t look down upon the people who don’t want to do that.
It's just a colossal misread of the demographics. The community was always a mix of people who wanted to build a printer, and people who wanted a printed thing. The community has massively exploded since the early years, and it's almost entirely made of people in the latter camp who, critically, no longer have to go through the former campsite to get there. It doesn't mean there aren't people in the first camp, or even that there are fewer of them. They're just a rounding error now.
You can tell when it happened, because the E3D v6 nozzle pattern went from being a de facto standard across everything to something you need to buy an adapter for, and nobody really seemed to blink.
The Groovemount was the "standard" for a while there (Makergear, Jhead, etc) then when E3D came in they used the same idea but changed the measurements.
It was pointed out to the devs...they left it the way they modified it.
So E3D was incompatible with the mounts that were the "standard"...others later followed and also made their own mounts.
The E3D clones advertised themselves as "jheads" and "E3D" when they were neither...rode on the popularity of other hotends via false advertising. It also happened with the electronics that were popular at the time leading to a lot of issues when people were confused about what firmware would run on the boards they purchased.
It's a lot less of an issue, now, but Linux used to be a "mechanic's hot rod" operating system.
It's like that kid down the block, with the sweet hot rod that rattles the windows, when he drives past, but whenever you drive past his house, the car is up on blocks, and he's working on it.
Working on tools can be a lot of fun, but I like working on stuff that ships, so I prefer tools that don't require much work.
Also I have a hobby that requires tools. If I'm fixing my 3d printer that means I'm not using that printer to make parts for my hot rod (or whatever it is I'm doing for fun)
We had a similar discussion about computers the other day. A lot of us miss the days of tiny memory and optimizing for that.
It takes all kinds and I see no reason to gate keep either way. It's too bad that we do t often segregate around those opinions and don't share as much
> It takes all kinds and I see no reason to gate keep either way.
Gatekeeping is a good way to describe it. This happens to a lot of niche hobbies that go mainstream. Some of the old ingroup that were into the hobby before it was cool get irrationally angry at the new waves of adoption because they're in it for different reasons.
I don't care why someone is in a hobby. If you want to do it the easy way, good for you. Nothing has been taken away from those who want to do it the hard way. It's much easier to get started building custom machines now than it was when I was starting out.
> There are more opportunities and knowledge available now for people who do want to build their own machines and it’s very cheap.
And what happens if China decides that it is no longer in their interest to allow Americans access to cheap aluminum extrusions, hotends, motors, and controllers?
Between the American tariffs and Chinese prioritization of 3d printing in a past five year plan American hobbyists and small scale producers are in a potential bind.
> And what happens if China decides that it is no longer in their interest to allow Americans access to cheap aluminum extrusions, hotends, motors, and controllers?
Then home 3D printing will be the least of our concerns? What kind of question is this?
Decades of prioritizing manufacturing capacity and talent lead to China being able to prioritize the development advanced additive manufacturing for industrial purposes and to being able to dominate international sales of consumer level 3d printers.
Ignoring the development of the sorts of skills and abilities in the general public that come from tinkering with small bench top machines like lathes and 3d printers is detrimental to nation’s ability to be self sufficient and raise the next generation of mechanically inclined people.
China seems to get that while other countries don’t.
> Ignoring the development of the sorts of skills and abilities in the general public that come from tinkering with small bench top machines like lathes and 3d printers is detrimental to nation’s ability to be self sufficient and raise the next generation of mechanically inclined people.
I replied to your topic about China stopping exports of stepper motors and aluminum extrusions, now you're switching to yet another goalpost.
For what it's worth, I've spent a lot of time with 3D printers in the past decade. The amount I've learned doesn't hold a candle to any of the deep dives I've done for real engineering work. A couple months of paid full-time engineering work on in a new area would bring any engineer up to speed.
3D printers are cool, but the self-importance some people attribute to this hobby is a little too much some times.
I think mechanical / electronic intuition are important, and they come from tinkering (especially at younger ages).
Sure, being able to do math and detailed analysis are important. But having a good guess on step 1 is important, too, to narrow the search of huge design spaces.
I think we've all experienced different kinds of engineers. The one you trust to do a month-long trade study with deep mathematical reasoning is usually not the one you trust to just know a plausible path forward. And we need both.
It has never been a better time to be able to make parts at home in USA than right now. A formlabs form 4 is cheaper than a Bridgeport, there is a glut of desktop CNC mills (aluminum routers) under ~5k, in wood the shaper origin and sienci altmill are pretty strong as is the avidcnc router family which happens to use domestically sourced extrusion from 8020…
Frankly, I am confused by much of what in reading here
> And what happens if China decides that it is no longer in their interest to allow Americans access to cheap aluminum extrusions, hotends, motors, and controllers?
We make our own. You seem to be under the common delusion that because only a tiny % of people work in manufacturing compare to 70 years ago, that mean the US doesn't to manufacturing. In fact the US is manufacturing more than ever with just that tiny % of people. Be glad you don't have to work a boring assembly line job.
I mean, on the one hand, manufacturing has grown near-continually for those 70 years, and its demand for labor has reduced. So, it's not like you're wrong.
At the same time, our production of lower value, commodity-ish things has indeed shrunk rather than grown with population of demand. That manufacturing expertise is more concentrated more on higher value (aerospace, information technology, etc) things and less on fasteners, bulk materials, or extrusions.
We are not vertically integrated in the way that China is.
What are you talking about? Show me one survey that shows DIY crafts as a whole becoming more popular in the past several decades. It's just not a thing. People increasingly don't have room for it, computers and cell phones have won as a way to spend the bulk of our free time, and even if you want to create, the primary outlet is the digital world.
> 3D printing at home is more popular than ever
Sure, but that's a given because the technology didn't exist until very recently. I can also say that Tesla Cybertruck is more popular than ever, but that doesn't mean much, right.
> Even families I know who don’t have a computer at home, only their phones, now have 3D printers and use them.
A vanishingly tiny proportion of families in the US or in the EU own 3D printers and use them.
A vanishing small number of people ever did those things. Many people owned tablesaws but they rarely used them to make something for fun. They owned the dream and subscribed to the magazines but they only rarely made anything.
Yeah, unfortunately you are correct. Life's too busy nowadays and there's not enough time to do a quarter of the things one wishes especially projects that require planning and months to implement.
Moreover, the reduction in or loss of manual trades (woodworking, machining, toolmaking, etc.) whether at home or in industry, amounts to an overall deskilling of the citizenry which has strategic implications.
I don't see how that holds. Detroit and other cities it we're once filled with skilled machinists, pattern makers, carpenters, pipefitters, etc. Now they're not. None of this has anything to do with what those people did for fun in their spare time (and you're right: that was rarely "the same thing I do at work but in my garage"). We are certainly deskilled in these areas compared to times in decades past.
Sherline made tools for hobbyist. While they were high quality such that a professional could use them, professionals typically would buy larger more expensive machines (which can still to the small jobs when that is they got, but could also take on larger work the Sherline couldn't handle).
The the hobbyist in the garage needs to be the topic here, not professionals. The hobbyist enjoying things in the garage still exists, but is still rare. Those that do the work are skilled. If you want to join them there are plenty of books on the subject, it just takes some practice to develop the skills.
> Sure, but that's a given because the technology didn't exist until very recently.
I built my first 3D printer over 10 years ago. The latest printer I bought is much more refined, but it's still stepper motors, belts, a gear driven extruder, and a nozzle like my original printer. The technology has been around for a long time. The popularity explosion is recent.
> A vanishingly tiny proportion of families in the US or in the EU own 3D printers and use them.
We're talking about hobbies and that's how hobbies work, yes.
The hobby is growing significantly, though. Arguing that most households don't have a 3D printer is just a strawman.
"Most households", no, but a statistically significant number? Yes.
Two of my co-workers have one each, and another is planning on buying one for her kids for Christmas --- DJI revenge-investing in Elegoo to spite the folks who left their company to start Bambu Labs pretty much knocked the bottom out of the market and halved (again) the price with the Centauri Carbon, resulting in a glut of ~$300 CoreXY printers, many of which are enclosed and hence have a higher perceived value.
Most estimates are that 2024 had ~4.5 million shipped, and 2025 looked to be even more, and no signs of the upward trajectory decreasing for 2026. For one small snapshot see the recent Snapmaker campaign for the U1, >$20M raised from >20K backers. With most sales to the U.S., for ~135M households, while not at 10%, it is almost certainly past 5%, so approximately 1-in-20 households.
> You could Google this and find a thousand articles about it.
Such articles are frequently by the people who would benefit the most from them and usually lack specifics. My favorite version of this is to do a web search for "fastest growing hobby in the world". Lots of hobbies are the fastest growing hobby in the world, it turns out.
I think maybe your view is too narrow? It's not that people don't want to make a machine, it's that now they don't have to.
When I started hobby CNC a few years ago, the only compact or desktop CNC machines were flimsy Chinese things made entirely of extrusion, expensive machines made for education/prototyping environments and the Carbide3D Nomad (which I ended up buying).
I ended up building a machine from scratch because the original Nomad was too flimsy to really cut metals, even Aluminium.
But in the last few years companies like Makera came along and sell desktop CNC machines that can cut metal for under $6k USD and there's even a toolchanger.
For just a little more, there's a Kickstarter for a 5-axis machine with mist cooling, ATC a wireless probe and it can cut steel and titanium.
And for those that want a DIY project, there seem to be plenty of folks doing CNC conversions of second-hand manual mills.
> The lie has been heavily sold to the maker community that you are "wasting your time if you make something yourself" since it is cheaper to offshore even small 3d prints and machining projects.
I've seen what people go through when they operate 3D printers. The impression I have is that they still make 2D inkjet printers look like paragons of reliability.
* 1x Prusa XL Gen 1 with 5 toolheads
* 1x Prusa Mk4IS
* 1x Bambu Labs X1C with multi-material
* 2x Voron 0.2
* 1x Sovol Zero
My experience: the typical higher-end printer runs out of the box and runs hundreds of hours (or more) between maintenance beyond wiping the plate down, occasionally greasing the rails, and blowing little plastic bits out of the enclosure. Every year I end up doing a few hour significant maintenance job on about one of the six printers.
But then there's lemons. That Sovol Zero is terrible and has been down more than it's been up, because of something in the extruder assembly. It also came with a defective camera and needed it replaced. I need to decide whether to rebuild all that with many hours of labor or just get rid of it.
Some people want to have an experience with their printer. Some people want it to be an appliance. If you wanted an appliance, and got an experience, you're going to be disappointed.
For people who genuinely wanted the experience of exploring 3D printers, like yourself, I'm very happy that those people got that experience.
For myself, just as I want to print documents and not have adventures with inkjet printers, I want to make things and not have adventures with 3D printers. Which is why I have no plans to own a 3D printer.
My Elegoo Centauri Carbon and Flashforge AD5X have been pretty much plug in, load filament, calibrate/configure for that filament, print.
It or a similar printer (CoreXY, enclosed if you're going to print filaments which warrant that) from a brand w/ a good reputation should work as well.
I recently bought a Bambu Lab A1 printer. I went specifically with Bambu Lab because everything I read said that was the better choice if you want something low maintenance and easy to set up even if it’s not as open as some of the alternatives.
It’s stuck in the auto calibration stage. It gets halfway through then it stops with a generic error message. The UI around this is really clunky. I’ve tried searching online, asking Claude and nothing. I emailed customer support and they came back with cryptic instructions that assume familiarity with the internals of the machine.
I decided to leave this for a day when I wasn’t too mentally drained from work to debug issues in my free time and instead the machine has been collecting dust ever since.
Maybe it was a mistake to get a Bambi Lab? I thought it was the more turn key option but it hasn’t been my experience.
> It’s stuck in the auto calibration stage. It gets halfway through then it stops with a generic error message.
So it was dead on arrival. You should have contacted support who would have figured out if you need the whole unit replaced or just part of it. If they are not responsive enough just send back the whole thing.
What would you do if you buy a laptop and it never passes the Power-On Self-Test? I would just return it to whoever i bought it from.
> I thought it was the more turn key option but it hasn’t been my experience.
I mean it is. For everyone who i know who owns one. Every company will sell an occasional dud.
Either it got damaged in transit, or the fault somehow escaped their QA, or you managed to screw up the assembly by not plugging in something, or leaving a transit fixture in somehow. Either way contacting support is the correct way to get to the bottom of it.
Come to think of it when i bought my Sherline lathe initially the motor didn’t turn on when i plugged it in. I wrote an email to the distributor who got me in contact with someone from Sherline. They asked me to check a thing which fixed the issue.
> So it was dead on arrival. You should have contacted support who would have figured out if you need the whole unit replaced or just part of it.
I mentioned that in my comment. I contacted CS. Multiple times in fact. They wanted to diagnose the issue remotely before issuing a refund. Their instructions were poorly written and assumed familiarity with the internals of the machine. ChatGPT helped some but not completely. Then life got busy, I had work travel and the 30 return window passed before I realized it.
Your response is, frankly, a little condescending. You seem convinced this is somehow my fault or that sat there twiddling my thumbs. Of course I understand that duds make it through manufacturing at times. It’s great that the happy path is easy. Do we judge the accessibility of a product only by how it behaves when everything goes right? I was careful during assembly and watched multiple YouTube videos and read the official instructions when putting it together, I contacted CS. In retrospect I should have pushed harder for a refund, but my original point still stands. As someone who wanted a “just works” solution, what I got instead was something faulty and then a really painful process for getting it solved.
It heavily depends on which printer you are talking about.
There is a world of difference between a 2019 Creality Ender 3 and a 2023 Bambulab A1 for not that much more money.
Auto-leveling, input shapping, PEI plates, high flow hotends, better build quality... all that have improved reliability significantly while increasing speed by a lot.
It even kind of killed the whole "tips and tricks to have good 3D prints" Youtube niche.
The Ender 3 had a huge role in democratizing 3D printing, but a 20% failure rate was kind of expected. With modern printers, the expectation is bellow 5% failure rate, plus the failures are much less painful since they are ~4 times faster.
It's not quite "press print and it works" but it's pretty damn close.
I’ve had several printers over more than a decade. Even the most reliable new units can still be difficult to debug little things. My cousin’s family got a Bambu printer with no technical or mechanical experience and gets it working well most of the time, but there are still things that can bite you like prints not sticking to the bed because it has oils on it or filament breaking in the feed path because PLA absorbs moisture from the air and becomes brittle. A modicum of attention can keep these problems in check but the operator has to do some reading and learning.
There is another set of people who are in 3D printing because they like the experience of debugging and improving the printer as much or more than the final prints they get from it. The most hardcore 3D printing people I know don’t actually print much other than 3D benchies and test towers because their fun comes from playing with the machine and trying new parts. Those people build a different set of printer types than the plug and play units used by most casual makers.
I had a cheap Ender 3 Pro for years. It had occasional issues, but they were fairly easy to solve due to the large user base. It was great to learn on since you had to learn the concepts and do some stuff like leveling manually. So even the cheap stuff can work fine.
Most makers I know prefer to make stuff at themselves. If anything, it permits to iterate more quickly and grants much more satisfaction in the end.
But nearly all of them want to make stuff... not make the tool that makes stuff. It's the whole "my hobby is 3d printing" vs "my hobby is 3d printers".
Assembling a Voron is already a one or two week-ends project, building and configuring a custom CNC router can take months and there are class of tools which are simply inaccessible (making multi-layer PCBs, building anything rigid enough for steel machining).
Homebrew machines will always have its aficionados, people still are building Vorons for example, even when it doesn't really make sense financially or in terms of performance. But it's a niche that only grew early-one artificially when it's the only path (ex: reprap & early 3dp days), most people don't actually enjoy this part.
IMHO, having cheap ($500 or less) numerically controlled pre-made tools like 3d printers, laser cutters/engravers and lately maybe desktop CNCs, has been a blessing in the maker space, lowering the barrier to entry and enabling an explosion in the number of people building stuff.
I feel like this has been a talking point for as long as off-the-shelf printers aimed at hobbyists have existed. Calling them AI factories is a bit off the mark imo, there are plenty of hobbyists that learn CAD and want to make their own stuff, but don't want to build their own printer. The kind of people who are interested in reprap are absolutely still around, and I really don't see that community going dissolving because of the rise of capable commercial printers.
"it is now popular to just have someone else do it...be it AI or a factory in another country"
And sure there are some people interested in reprap but they have been scattered to the wind. #reprap IRC has become an advertising/support channel for commercial printers. If you go to most of the channels/forums where the development used to happen and mention you want to build a printer you will be flooded with responses about how stupid that is and provided with names/links of the printers you should be buying. Making things is a fool's errand.
Maybe my observations were different...maybe not...but from what I saw at about 2016 the whole DIY machine thing switched.
I believe part of it is the cost. It used to be too expensive to get something like a decent commercial 3D printer (though at the same time). Now you can get one for less than the cost of RepRap components back in the day, so it is stupid to do it if you just want to print stuff out (it might even be more expensive, and will likely produce worse prints).
If, however, you want to learn how to build one, or just have an experience of building your own tool you'll use to create stuff, it is most definitely not stupid to do it.
With 3D printing becoming mainstream, you'll have fewer people in those communities who support and live that approach though, and you'll need to look harder to find documentation and like-minded people.
> from what I saw at about 2016 the whole DIY machine thing switched.
GOOD! Those old DIY machines were awful. Even back then I wanted a printer that just worked, instead of spending hours just to get it printing somewhat accurately. I still have tubs of old ramps/smoothieboards/V6s and similar junk from that era, it was an awful experience. My X1C just works, I've printed more with it since I've bought it than all the other printers I owned combined. Sure there is still the occasional failure, but that is nothing compared to the failure rates I had before.
I think it’s never been a better time to be an at-home maker.
I built 3 Voron printers because there wasn’t a way to get close to that performance at a price I would choose to pay. I hand-converted a HF mill to DRO then to 2-axis CNC.
I can buy printers that are 90-95% as good for well under $1000 and 75-85% as good for $350 now.
CNC routers are readily available and good. Laser cutters are readily available, reasonably cheap, and good.
I just don’t see a broad migration to importing maker parts (other than PCBB/PCBA, which is phenomenal).
It could also be that Sherline has much more and tougher competition these days. When I looked at getting a small mill 20 years ago, it felt like there weren't many options. Now every week it feels like there's a new Kickstarter claiming to "finally" make desktop cnc machining of metal (aluminum) parts easy. Some of the software on these looks pretty approachable for beginners, and the prices are often lower than what sherline offered too. I've never used any of this form factor of CNC machine so I can't comment on the quality, but at one point I thought long and hard about getting one and the newer designs seemed more appealing
I'm not sure if it's that simple. Many space-intensive DIY hobbies are on the retreat simply because more people are moving into cities or very dense suburbs where you have no practical opportunity to, say, build a woodworking shop. Metalworking was even more severely impacted, for obvious reasons.
Also, long before mail-order offshore manufacturing, people have been lured away from most of this by the promise of 3D printing. Every other techie I know owns a 3D printer. Most have not made anything interesting with it because they soon learn that the real difficulty is materials science and 3D design. But as a nerd, it's the thing you're supposed to own. In contrast, I know maybe four people in the SF Bay Area who are into woodworking, metalsmithing, CNC, or stuff like that.
I don't see mail-order prototyping as a conspiracy... it's more of a culmination of the DIY community chasing the mirage they were sold on in the early 2010s. I still remember the HN claims: home manufacturing revolution! It's the beginning of a brand new economy, why would anyone buy anything anymore when you can just click "print"... with some amusing parallels to how some folks now talk about building your own software with AI.
The mail-order stuff isn't evil insofar that it may allow some people to make things they couldn't make before. On the flip side, it's a very inefficient way to learn, so I think it will reduce hardware literacy among those who could afford a garage workshop.
FWIW, I think the same goes for AI-assisted hardware design. On one hand, I see people who otherwise wouldn't be DIYing getting into DIY: "I asked Claude and it one-shotted this rectangular enclosure for me, it's amazing!", "Claude made this RP2350 breakout board for me, how cool is that". But I also see established DIYers getting a degree of brain rot.
we have had a home manufacturing revolution, though, and making every kind of hardware is crazy accessible, look at the explosion of niche products in every single hobby space over the past ten years
I miss absolutely nothing about etching my own single layer PCBs at home
First, PCBs: neither do I, I'm not sure why you're assuming that's the position I want to take. This has nothing to do with 3D printing or mail-order metal parts.
Second, I don't think there's a revolution for the general population. Your archetypal middle-aged dad / curious teenager are DIYing less than 20 years ago, which in turn was less than 40 years ago. The stats here are clear, most of "garage" occupations are on the decline. Less space, higher costs, more emphasis on safety. Some hobbies, such as backyard chemistry, are effectively gone. Shop classes in most schools are gone. Making your own bookshelf or building a radio from a kit is no longer a rite of passage.
Third, the "explosion of niche products" - maybe, but I think some of it is just visibility. Kickstarter, HN, Hack-a-Day, and so on. Before that, we had hobby journals for woodworking, electronics, etc, and they were always full of ads for niche gear. You just weren't seeing the totality of it in a doom-scroll loop. Visibility has benefits, but my point is that the qualitative change isn't as profound.
I actually believe it's mostly about cost. Things you'd DIY in the past are now crazily accessible: DIY is usually more expensive than getting a commodity product.
But still, I would love to have a way to build PCBs at home and I'm keeping an eye on people (mostly the Opulo/LumenPnp guy) experimenting milling and more recently engraving with fiber & UV lasers.
I've reached the point where I know I'll die before I get a faction of my todo list done. Building PCBs is on of those required steps for several parts of my todo list, and so I'll be glad to outsource if that is affordable. (if is key here, if it turns out expensive I might get a setup to do my own)
PCB manufacturing is reasonably cheap. YMMV, but JLCPCB was ~$20 for a set of 5 boards (minimal order quantity) last time I ordered.
What you lose is not monetary, it's the ability to iterate quickly. It can be mitigated with next day manufacturing+delivery from local manufacturers... at a cost (IIRC, ~$80).
But frankly, it would be nicer to pluck a blank board in a laser, press burn, and have a good enough board in 10 minutes.
Fiber lasers are kind of capable of doing that, but they are still a bit expensive (~$2000), the result is imperfect (scorched epoxy board), and you can do at most 2 layers... if you are willing to manually tap rivet vias to connect the layers.
Re: factory in another country:
I use and recommend craftcloud (Germany company that facilitates having your uploaded model be printed wherever and however you choose (and see prices of course). I am always able to find companies in the USA to print my designs. I had repeated good results with https://hudsoncreativegroup.com/ in AR. The only reason I haven’t done it myself is because I don’t have time to do it often enough and each time I get back into it I have to relearn about the material choice tradeoffs. If I had a better grasp of these things and get a less demanding tech job/replaced by AI :), I would research buying one.
Steel and aluminum costs way more than it did last year, as the tariffs are hitting the small manufacturers first.
Openbuilds was a slotted 2020 china rail kit company, and was very clear about community members being not allowed to post unrelated projects. There was nothing really "open" about their site, but it was more of a Mecano like product.
Sherline CNC mills were never as solid as Taig, but the mini-lathes were workable for small hobby projects (had mine for years till upgrading to a South Bend antique.)
3D printers are easier to use given they handle geometry impossible for milling. If I have a choice between printing or cutting a herringbone gear, than printing wins every time (time cost is zero for automation.)
There is also the export restriction on 5-axis machine CAM software now. Small CNC machines are a great way to learn, but most kids no longer have $7k to spend on a hobby. If you have long term space on property, than a full-sized worn old mill is a better investment (just don't climb mill if you want reasonable tolerances.)
The problem isn't just hobby mills/lathes, but many firms went under in the past few decades. Domestic manufacturers have mostly lost the skills needed to build things themselves. It is funny seeing old 1950's US milling machines (sold as scrap iron) still running small business in the India industrial strip.
Hobby 3D metal-printing + EDM/Grinder technology will probably fill the void, but people are going to see more suboptimal oddball composites.
>Maybe it's by design? I don't know.
Unlikely, just other people making money off of peoples short-term thinking. =3
Even China had a hard time keeping its milling factories fed over the years. The only difference was their government recognized the strategic importance. It is why you can now find drill/tap/chamfer combination carbide end mills in every metric size you could want.
>The ability to make things at home is disappearing
It is changing, for example instead of using noisy cutters people use shears to cut SAC305 solder bars. As in a hobby class 7 zone building space, your neighbors don't want to deal with noise, dust, or weird smells etc.
One will also see more low cost 3D printed mild steel in home 3D printers, as the amount of physical space needed to print an engine block for example is smaller than a fridge. The future is here, but people in the US will have to wait a few more years. You already know why =3
Do you expect the homeowner that needs to mow their lawn to build their own lawnmower? How about the "tech savvy" homeowner that wants an automated lawnmower? Should they be derided for buying one of the robot mowers instead of building their own? Should the person that needs a hammer and nails to build a raised bed for their gardening hobby be required to make the hammer or the nails, in the name of "learning something new/valuable"?
It comes down to the fact that these things are tools. Now that reasonably affordable "turnkey" or "off the shelf" options are available, what you're really seeing is the divide between those wanting building the tool itself as their hobby, and those that just want a tool to use on their other hobbies. There was less of a divide previously because for most people, the "just buy one" option simply didn't exist. Now it does.
I spent a lot of time over the years wire-wrapping circuits, then manually laying out and etching/making circuit boards, then using software to do the layouts while still etching/drilling boards myself, then learning and switching the bulk of my projects to surface-mount. It was a necessary part of making electronic bits for stuff I wanted, but I didn't enjoy that part. Now that I can draw something up, send it off and for a few bucks have professionally manufactured multi-layer boards in days/weeks, with many/most components already placed and soldered, why wouldn't I cut out the part I don't enjoy?
I played with 3d printers off and on from about 2006 onwards, though I never kept one around for any real length of time. I found that while I really wanted the capabilities, I didn't want "building and keeping a 3d printer running" to be my hobby. 20 years later, there are options that don't require printer maintenance to be it's own hobby, and I'm much more willing to keep one around.
I've had a couple Chinese-made mini-mills since 2002 -- Sieg X2s, if I remember the old naming scheme correctly, though they were sold by various importers with their own names/model numbers. I converted one to CNC operation in 2004. While I appreciate the work done by others that I could learn from, I did not enjoy the process or the project. If there had been a reasonably affordable "turnkey" option with the capabilities I wanted, I would have 100% taken it. If I needed another one now, with the options available, there's no way I'd bother to build my own. Even then, I would have gone with sherline's early cnc offerings -- they fit my budget, but were just too small for what I wanted to do.
My first CNC router was scratch-built in the early 2000s. My current one came in a crate 4 years ago, and cost about half of what building a new one with the same capabilities from scratch would have. Instead of spending a several months' worth of weekends building it, I spent one weekend unpacking it and setting it up, another fine-tuning it and the software settings, and then was able to start using it for projects I enjoyed.
The ability for people to make things at home is expanding, just not in the way you'd like to see. That isn't a bad thing.
At the end of the day, time is what is ultimately valuable, and I don't have nearly as much of it as I did when I was younger. At this point, I'd much rather spend what time I do have enjoying my hobbies and creating the things I want to create, not building tools or suffering through tasks I hate simply because someone else thinks that is the important part. It seems I'm not the only one.
As for companies that "care" disappearing, well, that's just the current business environment. When the only measure of success that's deemed important is the stock value -- or potential stock value, in the case of startups -- customer service is an expense that can be cut to inflate next months' quarterly report. In exchange, the concept of customer loyalty is dying as well.
Nah, we just went with Bambu. No shade to the reprap community but my enjoyment of the hobby is with the printing of models, not tinkering with my machine constantly.
The amount of failed builds I got with the prusa xl due to its tool changer meant it was the last prusa my household will ever get
I know a local bar where there are 4 bartenders who have all been there over 25 years.
Recently I started asking them "How many pregnancies do you suppose you have caused throughout your career?". The most common response was to laugh but all of them also said "I know of a few at least".
Good way to describe it. Hard to relay to people what it is like walking into a crowded room and not be able to find the people you are meeting without one of them waving.
I try to explain it is a lot like the subway scenes from Pink Floyd's "The Wall". Everyone has the same distorted indistinguishable face.
Very likely I have lost a lot of "new friends" and business contacts from walking past not recognizing them.
The best resource to learn the basics that I have seen is a "comic book" that was made about 15 years back [1].
It goes over the basics and helps you get going. From there I suggest reading posts, watching videos and just talking to people who solder.
Find some bare board kits (or your own kits) and assemble them. Soldering, like welding, is one of those things you can learn to do in a day...but it takes experience to get good at it. A lot of what you do is by "feel".
Once you get a hang of it and would like to be able to inspect your own work find a copy of IPC-610A (there are free PDFs online often, otherwise it is expensive). This gives a visual representation of what is a failure or just a process indicator.
edit: Most important. Do not touch the solder to the iron tip. You heat the joint and touch the solder to that. This is the most common newbie mistake you see.
The car hacker's handbook [1] has a chapter on just using the infotainment system to access the CAN. Specifically mentions "attacking through the update system".
At one event I was at I spoke with someone who was tied into the company and they said that when wars happen their business picks up because copper mining starts back up. War apparently needs a lot of copper too.
I never looked into it to verify but it seemed like an interesting bit of data.
Maybe there are other major uses in war, but the casings and jackets of firearms cartridges are mainly copper. A sibling comment mentions nickel which is the major component of the bullet jacket after copper.
It is not just tariffs. The cost of living in the US, especially housing, has approximately doubled in my area since 2019. There is a massive overinvestment in real estate. When housing costs go up it forces companies to pay their employees more to adjust which then drives up the COGS. This becomes a feedback loop because the real estate investors see the prices go up and say "well we have to raise rents because COGS are going up."
Competing with any offshore becomes impossible (especially when compared to countries which subsidize their production). Companies close instead of attempting to compete. Why would you when simply investing in real estate, crypto or AI would net more money? The parts needed to produce in the US are typically not made in the US.
Tariffs hurt...a lot...the companies I work with directly (including mine) have been struggling with them for a decade now. But it is a lot more than that...there is a general lack of interest in making things that are real. Plus, the cost if you attempt to do so puts you in a position where you cannot be competitive.
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