Hertz infamously came out of bankruptcy guns-blazing and purchased 100k cars for $4.2 billion and helped drive Tesla's market cap above $1 trillion in 2021
By 2024 they had begun dumping the EVs and reported a $2Bn loss as a result.[0]
The HTZ stock price has fallen 90%.[1]
Somehow TSLA is still trading in the neighborhood of that 2021 peak. Currently trading at a PE ratio of over 300, despite declining revenues[2].
He's an effective conman for those with money that needs investing. His track record is objectively bad[0] and that doesn't matter as long as he can say the right thing at the right time to keep the stock high and his investors happy and believing that the breakthrough is just around the corner.
Many of his investors probably understand that they're holding a bunch of very expensive tulip bulbs but the opportunity to profit off of the greater fool is too great to ignore as long as they don't mistime the peak. With the amount of loose money sloshing around the global economy, he can probably continue riding this wave until some black swan event forces everyone to confront reality.
I think that's a pretty fair take on the situation overall. There is the potential of a merger between Tesla and SpaceX which might help him paper over the short-term issues Tesla is facing around deliveries, largely due to the public backlash around his political medling and DOGE.
Right, that's the point. It doesn't matter if he delivers on his promises as long as people believe he will eventually and the stock goes up. People have also made money investing in Ponzi schemes but they're still Ponzi schemes.
I guess the fact that Paul Graham felt the urge to write and publish this in 2020 is indicative of the toxic relationship that was developing between silicon valley and the rest of the world.
Unfortunately, this essay exhibits the hallmark lack of empathy and self-awareness that perpetuate the toxic dynamic.
Sure, there are "haters", but the mirror effect is equal: powerful people often end up inside of bubbles that shield them from negative criticism, and often become blind to the legitimate criticisms people have of them.
These decisionmakers often have to make difficult decisions with powerful tradeoffs. It's more comfortable to cast those with values differences or who are on the wrong end of that decisionmaker's tradeoffs as "haters".
I don’t think it’s about powerful people or personality cults. The same dynamic surely can be observed in any communities (interest groups, even families), where people take sides based on personalities rather than facts about events alone. It’s just less prominent, but same overall phenomena - the bias exists, and there are cases where it becomes severe and nearly unconditional.
It’s easy to dismiss PG with “SV techbros are nuts”, but that could be (or could be not, but there’s a risk) the same identity over substance bias manifestation. To de-bias, we should look where the class/status/social-circle identity becomes unimportant.
There’s a theory that our reasoning had evolved not for truth-seeking purposes but for a social cohesion, but I haven’t yet read well about it (“The enigma of reason” is on my reading list) to form an informed opinion.
The bubble comes because of the haters. Any decision that is made will piss off someone even if it's for stupid reasons (classic example: https://xkcd.com/1172/) and powerful people make decisions that affect many people. When any choice they make aggravates people and even choosing to do nothing aggravates some people, they quite sensibly stop listening to public opinion entirely.
I think the biggest problem we have right now is our billionaires essentially live in a completely different society from the rest of us. Some of these guys are building doomsday bunkers! From their perspective, if things get really really bad, they'll just use their infinite money glitch to go somewhere safe.
The problem is these guys lack "skin in the game". They make decisions that affect people that they never even hear from or speak to -- on purpose. They don't want to speak to the commoners. Like Paul Graham, apparently, they think we're losers because we didn't chase money.
IMO, things don't get better until we abolish citizens united and invoke some pretty hefty progressive taxes. There's absolutely no societal value to allowing someone to become a trillionaire, or even a centi-billionaire. Thats way too much power for a very disconnected group of people to have.
You'd have to spell out for me how this is exhibited, but I'm also not clear on how it's supposed to be relevant in the first place.
> Sure, there are "haters", but the mirror effect is equal
The post starts out with a description of mirrored observers ("fanboys") and extensively discusses the mirror nature.
> It's more comfortable to cast those with values differences
Most of the time that I see criticism of the various big names in tech, it's either failing to exhibit those value differences or failing to establish their relevance. (Which is to say: when we get "person X's actions are objectionable to me because they desecrate value Y", there is not good evidence that this actually happens, at least on anywhere near the scale alleged; the desecration is essentially a meme among detractors.) From TFA:
> When you have a dispute with someone, it's usually a good idea to try to understand why they're upset and then fix things if you can. Disputes are distracting. But it's a false analogy to think of a hater as someone you have a dispute with. It's an understandable mistake, if you've never encountered haters before. But when you realize that you're dealing with a hater, and what a hater is, it's clear that it's a waste of time even to think about them.
In reading HN submissions that have the name of someone important in tech in the title, it's become abundantly clear to me that the bulk of "negative criticism" of those people comes from people in the latter category. The same when the focus is on nations or on governments. When the focus is on the technology itself (and when there isn't a clear agenda of trying to make someone responsible for some particular fault), the discourse noticeably improves.
The commenting guidelines have the right of it:
> Please don't post shallow dismissals, especially of other people's work. A good critical comment teaches us something.
> Please don't use Hacker News for political or ideological battle. It tramples curiosity.
Closed models doesn't mean monopoly, cause they compete. And if the best thing for humanity is for good open models to exist, even those evidently required good closed models to copy from.
We have an entire generation of technologists convinced that you need a monopoly for a business to be viable, so every tech company is either trying to subsidize its way into a monopoly or running a deadweight loss.
Unsurprisingly, the resulting economy in aggregate is non-competitive, as it relies entirely on supply chains from competitive marketplaces.
> The state of the art models are going to get better and more expensive and smaller models are going to get cheaper.
Why do you think this will be true?
Right now I see the major US labs betting on gaining an advantage from having way more compute, and I see Chinese labs competing with one another in a resource-scarce environment, so they place much more emphasis on compute-efficiency.
But the supply chains that feed into the massive data center growth in the US are strained; there are energy, memory, and logistical bottlenecks to name a few.
In the medium-long run, compute capacity will not grow exponentially forever. Somehow it has for decades, but there can be no infinite exponential growth, and that point may be when the planet really starts to cook itself.
Maybe the US labs will become more compute-constrained, and then have to compete on efficiency.
Or maybe things change fundamentally in some other way I'm not thinking of.
The labs have a perverse incentive to make things as expensive compute wise as possible. The only thing keeping this somewhat in check is competition, but it's intentionally being gatekept by locking up the supply of computing infrastructure. With 3 players it's pretty easy to collude even if indirectly. They can't burn trillions forever. Nvidia's 75% profit margins are not sustainable forever.
>The labs have a perverse incentive to make things as expensive compute wise as possible. The only thing keeping this somewhat in check is competition, but it's intentionally being gatekept by locking up the supply of computing infrastructure. With 3 players it's pretty easy to collude even if indirectly.
By all accounts the AI capex boom is justified up by actual usage, rather than some nefarious plan for "locking up the supply of computing infrastructure". Just look at people complaining about claude availability and anthropic adding various load-shedding measures a few months ago.
Right but that could be more evenly distributed. There is a circular trade right now giving these few players near infinite resources that is blocking that from happening.
Commoditize your complement - I expect to see this most in consumer AI (after that starts actually working...)
It will be important for Apple to have good enough, cheap local LLM models that run on-device.
If the barrier to performance shifts from fundamental model capability to context collection and management I would expect to see folks focused on that problem continuing to drive open-weight LLM model development in some shape or form.
Probably. There are a lot of countries, especially third world ones, with very lax legal systems, not to mention the multitude of countries where law basically doesn't exist.
In the English language, "America" refers to a country. It is synonymous with "The United States of America". I say this as someone who lives in the same continent as that country, but not in the country itself.
Maybe you're thinking of "North America", "South America", or "the Americas".
I've got news for you there. The Biden administration tried to take the first real antitrust action in decades and then suddenly a bunch of tech oligarchs switched from supporting Democrats to supporting a convicted felon
To me the biggest (but not only) issue is that blindly connecting sensitive tools to 3rd party services has been normalized. Every time I hear the word "claw" I cringe...
Pretty much every major American inference provider claims to make a profit on API-based inference. Consumer plans might be subsidized overall, but it's hard to say since they're a black box and some consumers don't fully use their plans
Selling inference is not fundamentally different from selling compute - you amortize the lifetime cost of owning and operating the GPUs and then turn that into a per-token price. The risk of loss would be if there is low demand (and thus your facilities run underutilized), but I doubt inference providers are suffering from this.
Where the long-term payoff still seems speculative, is for companies doing training rather than just inference.
There’s a lot of debate over what the useful lifespan of the hardware is though. A number that seems very vibes based determines if these datacenters are a good investment or disastrous.
I specifically remember this debate coming up when the H100 was the only player on the table and AMD came out with a card that was almost as fast in at least benchmarks but like half the cost. I haven't seen a follow up with real world use though and as a home labber I know that in the last three weeks the support for AMD stuff at least has gotten impressively useful covering even cuda if you enjoy pain and suffering.
What I'm curious about are what about the other stuff out there such as the ARM and tensor chips.
All of them. It's simply impossible to sell tokens by usage at a loss now. You'll be arbitraged to death in a few days. It only makes sense to subsidize cost if you're selling a subscription.
If they were they would show evidence because they'd pull in more investment. I don't believe their claim that they make profits on inference, especially not with reports like this coming out.
By 2024 they had begun dumping the EVs and reported a $2Bn loss as a result.[0]
The HTZ stock price has fallen 90%.[1]
Somehow TSLA is still trading in the neighborhood of that 2021 peak. Currently trading at a PE ratio of over 300, despite declining revenues[2].
Really wish I understood the Elon Musk voodoo.
[0] https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/14/hertz-makes-agile-decision-t...
[1] https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HTZ/
[2] https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/tsla/revenue/
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