I may be glad no one took my bet offer of me paying $19 if AlphaGo won 3/5 vs them paying $1 otherwise... I had a prediction at 90% confidence that nothing would show up before the end of this year that would be capable of beating the top players (though since I first heard about MCTS's success the idea of coupling it with deep learning seemed obvious, so I had an unfortunately non-recorded prediction that if a company ever bothered to devote about 8-12 months of research and manpower into combining those two algorithms with a very custom supercomputer or tons of GPUs then they would have something that could beat the best), then AlphaGo was announced. But the top pros weren't too impressed with its defeat of Fan Hui, and Ke Jie estimated something like "less than 5%" chance of it beating Sedol so I updated to 5% for this match of it winning 3/5...
Tonight's game was beautiful. Last night's was a fighting game way too high level for me to really grasp (I have no idea how to play like that, all those straight and thin groups would make me nervous). I'm expecting Sedol to win Friday since I imagine he's going to have a great study session today, but I'm no longer confident he'll win the last two.. Still rooting for him though. :) (I also want to see AlphaGo play Ke Jie (ed: sounds like from the other submission on Ke's thoughts that may happen if Sedol is soundly defeated), and for kicks play Fan Hui again and see whether it now crushes weaker pros or is strangely biased to adopt a style just slightly stronger than who it's facing.)
Re last paragraph: "just slightly stronger" is expected. AlphaGo is designed to maximise its probability of winning, not its margin of victory. You can expect solid not-very-flashy plays that definitely maintain an advantage, rather than even slightly risky plays that probably increase the advantage.
Tonight's game was beautiful. Last night's was a fighting game way too high level for me to really grasp (I have no idea how to play like that, all those straight and thin groups would make me nervous). I'm expecting Sedol to win Friday since I imagine he's going to have a great study session today, but I'm no longer confident he'll win the last two.. Still rooting for him though. :) (I also want to see AlphaGo play Ke Jie (ed: sounds like from the other submission on Ke's thoughts that may happen if Sedol is soundly defeated), and for kicks play Fan Hui again and see whether it now crushes weaker pros or is strangely biased to adopt a style just slightly stronger than who it's facing.)