You are correct, it is napkin math after all. Assuming similar sales between mild hybrids and BEVs, the eventual cost of a BEV is probably only $2,000 to 3,000 more in the short term... but consumers make decisions based on differences $500 or even less.
I could do some more napkin math with engineering costs, unit costs, Bills of Material and amortization schedules... but you can be assured that automakers have done more than napkin math, and they are pursuing (as an aggregate group) both technologies.
The business cases for each of MHEV and BEV make different assumptions. I think it's great that different methods are being pursued. Eventually some automakers look very silly, but you can't tell which ahead of time.
I could do some more napkin math with engineering costs, unit costs, Bills of Material and amortization schedules... but you can be assured that automakers have done more than napkin math, and they are pursuing (as an aggregate group) both technologies.
The business cases for each of MHEV and BEV make different assumptions. I think it's great that different methods are being pursued. Eventually some automakers look very silly, but you can't tell which ahead of time.